Variable Indices

Prior to beginning work on this assignment, read Chapters 3 and 4 in Superforecasting.

https://esotericlibrary.weebly.com/uploads/5/0/7/7/5077636/philip_e._tetlock_-_superforecasting_the_art_and_science_of_prediction.pdf

Citation: Tetlock, P.E & Gardner, D. (2015). Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction. Retrieved from https://www.redshelf.com

Part 1:  reading the assigned chapters of Superforecasting this week, write a reflective journal of the three most important take-aways contained in the chapters. Your journal should be between two pages.

Part 2: Read Chapter 4 of your textbook, including the Brief Case “Cost of Living” at the end of Chapter 4 on page 143 and access the Numbeo Northern America: Current Cost of Living Index by City (numbeo.com)Links to an external site.

In this part you will be analyzing the Cost of Living Index and the Groceries Index for seven U.S. cities and creating a scatterplot to identify the relationships between the variables.  You may choose any seven U.S. cities you wish. Page length for this part should be two pages.

Go to the Numbeo Northern America: Current Cost of Living Index by City (numbeo.com)Links to an external site.  and then follow directions below to get started:

• Identify seven cities and note the “Cost of Living Index” value and the “Groceries Index” value.
• Develop a table with three columns:
  • City
  • Groceries Index (independent variable)
  • Cost of Living Index (dependent variable)
• Complete one row for column titles (City name, Groceries Index, and Cost of Living Index) and seven rows that show the city name, Groceries Index and the Cost of Living index.

In your Excel spreadsheet or tool of your choosing you will have developed a table with three columns, one row for titles, and seven rows containing data for each city you selected. In Excel or the software of your choosing: 

• Insert or draw a scatterplot of the selected data set.
• Display the regression line (also called the trend line, linear model, or line of best fit). In Excel click anywhere in the scatterplot.  Click on the plus sign and at the bottom of Chart Elements select “Trend line.”
• Display the equation for the trend line and R² value on the graph. In Excel right click on the trend line.  View the options on the right of the chart under “Format Trendline” and scroll to the bottom to select the boxes for display equation on chart and display R-squared on chart options.

In your paper:

• Cite the URL and complete an APA reference for the URL.
• Provide the table with your data and your spreadsheet of the graph with the equation and R² 
• Analyze your findings of the best and worst cities that predict the relationship between the Groceries Index and Cost of Living Index.
• Assess the relationship between the Groceries Index and Cost of Living Index in the cities you studied.